10 March 2017

Trained experts, stockmarkets and voters

“Terrible things are certain to happen to Britain, if it leaves the EU!”
“Terrible things are certain to happen to the US, if Donald Trump wins the election!”
That is what all the trained experts have been proclaiming.

At least, so it seems. If there were any trained experts saying something significantly different, they presumably weren’t given much of a platform in the mainstream media.

The stockmarket indices, which tend to anticipate the economy by about a year, are telling a different story.
Stockmarkets don’t always get it right, but in my experience they do so more often than trained experts.

If the markets are right on this occasion, then for those who care about things like growth and unemployment it is perhaps fortunate that the majority of voters chose to ignore the warnings of the experts.

FTSE 100
S&P 500