10 March 2017

Trained experts, stockmarkets and voters

“Terrible things are certain to happen to Britain, if it leaves the EU!”
“Terrible things are certain to happen to the US, if Donald Trump wins the election!”
That is what all the trained experts have been proclaiming.

At least, so it seems. If there were any trained experts saying something significantly different, they presumably weren’t given much of a platform in the mainstream media.

The stockmarket indices, which tend to anticipate the economy by about a year, are telling a different story.
Stockmarkets don’t always get it right, but in my experience they do so more often than trained experts.

If the markets are right on this occasion, then for those who care about things like growth and unemployment it is perhaps fortunate that the majority of voters chose to ignore the warnings of the experts.


FTSE 100
S&P 500

03 March 2017

spellcheck

Label, bottle of toilet cleaner made by S C Johnson, incorrect apostrophe:
With it’s uniquely shaped neck, Duck 5in1 Liquid Marine provides complete cleaning for your toilet, leaving it fresh, even under the rim.

24 February 2017

Protecting or endangering?

The Financial Conduct Authority is proposing to restrict betting on financials for private investors. ETX Capital comments: “if the proposal to reduce leverage is approved you would need to deposit more money in your account to trade.”

Any investor who is not a complete novice knows the risks attached to owning shares; knows that they can go down as well as up. The same is true of those who invest with leverage and on a short timescale: they are aware that losses are at least as likely as profits.

A risk which investors are perhaps less in focus on is that their broker will go belly‑up, potentially leading to the complete loss of funds held with that broker.

In 2011 MF Global, which had taken over futures/CFD broker GNI, went bust due to a variety of problems e.g. unauthorised trading by employees. Assets, including funds belonging to clients of former GNI, were frozen until the firm had been wound up, which took more than a year.

In 2015, spread-betting and CFD broker Alpari UK went bust as a result of losses arising from an extreme move in the Swiss Franc.

When an investment firm folds, client funds are typically lost, unless reimbursed by a government bailout fund such as the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. The more client funds are held by the firm, the bigger the losses (or reimbursements) involved.

I wonder whether the FCA has considered that requiring spread-betting and CFD clients to hold more funds with their broker, for a given size of position, increases risk — both for clients, and for taxpayers who may have to make good the losses in cases of insolvency.

17 February 2017

Staatssicherheit

Among a long list of problem areas identified by David Anderson QC in relation to proposed counter-extremism legislation, he mentions
the extent to which police, public authorities, informers and other members of the public will be encouraged to scrutinise the political and religious views expressed by other adults and children ...

[and] whether surveillance and investigatory powers (tailing, bugging, undercover police operations, CHIS, interception warrants, searches of communications data) may be used for the purposes of determining whether a person has engaged in, or been exposed to, extremist activity, in person or over the internet ...
Which raises the following question with regard to those who, while having nothing to do with promoting violence, disseminate views which the government dislikes:
— how much tailing, bugging, covert ops, hacking of emails and web activity, etc is already taking place?


* For those unfamiliar with the concept of CHIS (covert human intelligence sources), see this Home Office document. Page 11 gives a couple of examples.

10 February 2017

‘Exchanging ideas’

Celia Green:
I think people talk so much about the importance of ‘exchanging ideas’ because it is actually impossible in their world.

Everyone has so dense a layer of reactive personality that to talk objectively about anything is out of the question.

Aphorism, from Advice to Clever Children.

03 February 2017

counter-extremism

I have posted a second article on erosion of the rule of law. This one covers existing counter-terrorism legislation and the UK government’s counter-extremism strategy.

30 January 2017

new article on the website

I have posted an article on legal certainty, intended to be the first in a series dealing with erosion of the rule of law in Britain and elsewhere.

Next post on this site: Friday.

27 January 2017

Rewriting the rules of economics - 2

The second thing that jarred when I read MP Liam Byrne’s article is this.

Mr Byrne refers to those on a state pension, to whom the triple lock “will have channelled more than £33bn extra” by 2020. This is supposedly one of the groups who have done well while others have suffered.

However, this betrays an ignorance about the British state pension, which has dramatically decreased relative to wages, since the days when it was held out by the UK government as something that would hold its own against private sector pensions.

The current basic state pension is about a quarter of median income, and well below the cost of a minimum standard of living.

Incidentally, there is one possibility pseudo-egalitarian commentators seem not to consider with regard to the current high inequality readings. The readings arise to some extent from a small class of super-rich – footballers, popstars and others, many of whom benefit from the fact that contemporary mass media, mass entertainment and mass production are all geared towards the tastes of the homogenous majority. Even more redistribution of income towards the lower half of society may well result in readings becoming higher, not lower.

26 January 2017

Rewriting the rules of economics

An interesting article by Tim Worstall attacks MP Liam Byrne’s call to “rewrite the rules of economics”, as a cure for the supposed problem of inequality. As Tim points out, you cannot rewrite rules if they represent the way economies work.

Getting academics to generate models that will produce the answers you want seems the wrong way round to do research.

A couple of things jarred when I read Mr Byrne’s article (co-written with Professor Colin Hay, co-director of the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute).

The article cites the relation between a person’s level of education and their earnings, committing the common fallacy, when discussing this topic, of assuming correlation means causation. At least, that is the obvious way to interpret the writers’ assertion that
a degree remains the key determinant of a middle-class income
It seems to be taken for granted that the average non-graduate – if we could go back in time and arrange for them to attend university – would see their income higher by the so-called “graduate premium”: the difference in average salary between graduates and non-graduates. This presumes there is no innate ability factor to generate two different effects, with a correlation between them: (1) level of education and (2) level of earnings.

The blank-slate presumption is not supported by data but is frequently made nonetheless, perhaps because it chimes better with egalitarian ideology.

25 January 2017

Markets are voluntary, politics is coercive

Milton Friedman:
The political principle that underlies the market mechanism is unanimity. In an ideal free market resting on private property, no individual can coerce any other, all cooperation is voluntary, all parties to such cooperation benefit or they need not participate [...]

The political principle that underlies the political mechanism is conformity. The individual must serve a more general social interest — whether that be determined by a church or a dictator or a majority. The individual may have a vote and say in what is to be done, but if he is overruled, he must conform.
From ‘The social responsibility of business is to increase its profits’,
The New York Times Magazine, 13 September 1970.

24 January 2017

Paternalism for traders

The government is proposing to restrict spread betting on financials, which will primarily affect small investors.

This is wrong:
a) because paternalism is immoral,
b) because speculators (particularly small players) increase the efficiency of markets.


IG Index gives the following example of what will happen.



Even for experienced traders, the margin requirement (the amount of cash you need to deposit with IG) will go up from £345 to £1725, a factor of five. It’s hard to see this as anything other than a way of prohibiting trading, without making it outright illegal.

The vast majority of small traders, argues the consultation document, lose money – but so what? If that is how they want to spend their hard-earned pay, they should have that choice.

To express your views on the proposed legislation, fill in the online response form here.

23 January 2017

The individualism myth

In her recent speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Theresa May blamed individualism for our (allegedly) declining sense of responsibility towards one another.

‘Individualism’ is maligned by both Left and Right. The Church of England attacked it in its 2015 pre-election report.


The Oxford English Dictionary gives this as the primary definition for the word:
independence and self-reliance
I am not aware of any evidence for a correlation between (a) independence/self-reliance and (b) behaving with less consideration. Conceivably, there is a negative correlation.

The Prime Minister should refrain from reinforcing social myths. Perhaps by “individualism” she actually means indifference to family, arising from reliance on the state. If so, she should use a different word.

22 January 2017

Donald Trump and the conservatives

Everyone – including Daily Telegraph editors – seems to be complaining about President Trump, comparing him unfavourably with Obama, Reagan, Kennedy etc.

But there is nothing very surprising about what is happening, other than the election result.

If an ideology is pushed into a corner, it gets nastier.

Many conservatives seem to despise Trump for lowering the tone. Perhaps they should be grateful to him for shaking things up a little.


There are two preferred positions for the enemies of mediocracy [...]

Option 2: they can play by the rules, and compete by offering a more aggressive brand of mediocracy, with emphasis on authoritarianism and/or military activity.
(Mediocracy p.58)

02 June 2013

French Polish

Good old Chopin. He is definitely up there. In the top five. In my opinion.

His piano pieces are little symphonies in miniature. They often start with deceptive simplicity and apparent harmlessness. Then the music builds up to something more ominous and dramatic.

Critics have not always been kind to Chopin. During his lifetime he seems to have irritated a number of people, though not always for obvious reasons. At various times he was accused of being offhand, supercilious, reclusive, unmanly, babyish, frivolous and lightweight; and dismissed as capable only of ‘salon music’. Being Polish-born and only half French may have given him some problems in the haut-bourgeois Paris society which became his milieu.

Wagner, whose generosity and expansiveness when composing were not always matched by similar qualities in his social dealings, dismissed Chopin as “a composer for the right hand”. This verdict fails to grasp — perhaps intentionally — the nature of Chopin pieces, which are supremely lyrical. In style, they can seem like a piano version of bel canto singing, which is why most of the obvious action does happen on the right of the keyboard.

In tune with the fashion for hatchet jobs on figures from the past, a number of recent biographers have attacked Chopin as a disdainful snob, disloyal to his native Poland, or as hopelessly effete. The uninhibited emotionality of his music arouses enthusiasm in some, but seems to produce negative reactions in others.

It is interesting how individuals like Chopin, who deviate from normality but not in a readily definable way, are capable of provoking hostility of a kind which, with hindsight, seems irrational.

Still, his position seems safe, for now. 2010 — the 200th anniversary of his birth — was Chopin Year, and the composer received plenty of favourable attention, particularly from his homeland, Poland. His music is rightly celebrated for its astounding depth, notwithstanding its surface floweriness. Chopin pieces contain little storms of emotion, but often calm down again towards the conclusion.

And sometimes there is a funny little coda at the end.
Oh yes.



● Two things are required for successful performances of Chopin: (a) complete mastery of the keyboard, (b) faithfulness to the original emotional messages. Because of the impressionistic quality of the composition, this still leaves a wide range of possible interpretations.

A few major pianists fail with the first of the two criteria — personally, I like to hear all the notes — but at least as common is falling at the second hurdle. There are a couple of key themes in particular which one must be able to reproduce with conviction, if one is to do Chopin justice: nostalgia and courage.

Performances featuring (a) but not (b) can be interesting as demonstrations of virtuosity, but are otherwise as dull as looking at Gauguins in black and white.

Based on which pianists can and can’t do (b), I suspect that one ideally needs to have either East European or Jewish* in one’s make-up to get this part right. As someone with elements of both in his ancestry, I ought to be eligible to give it a go myself. Unfortunately, however, I do not play.

● Like all putative group differences, the one about playing Chopin is likely to be statistical, if true. The Spaniard Pedro Carboné is an excellent Chopin interpreter; while on the other hand there is one prominent Hungarian pianist who, as far as I am concerned, does not cut the mustard Chopin-wise.

By far the best young Chopin player on the scene, Rafal Blechacz, is a Pole. Blechacz’s performances are, quite simply, breathtaking. His playing of Chopin seems at times so correct that it’s almost macabre. Perhaps this is how the music was meant to sound, though of course there is no way of knowing. Technically the playing is flawless but, more importantly, the emotional messages are clearly there. One hears an urgency, and power, which it’s tempting to believe are authentically Chopinesque, but which very few pianists seem capable of reproducing.

Even the greatest performers have idiosyncrasies that one can quibble with. Blechacz’s playing occasionally comes across as a little too contemporary. One hears echoes of Rachmaninov, sometimes even McCartney. The performances can seem a trifle on the hard side, perhaps emphasising precision over reflectiveness. However, for all one knows, Chopin himself leant towards stern correctness, rather than in the romantic direction as heard in (say) Tamás Vásáry, another of the great Chopin players.

Blechacz** may sometimes seem to lack heart, but Chopin was accused of this himself. Perhaps the popular image of him as a dreamy poet is wide of the mark. A cousin on his mother’s side, General Krzyzanowski, fought in the American Civil War. Pictures of the General suggest a thoroughly robust character.

Whatever minor reservations one may have, it has to be admitted that Blechacz’s Chopin playing is astounding. I do not think Irish pianist John O’Conor was exaggerating when he described him as “one of the greatest artists I have had a chance to hear in my entire life”.

Blechacz’s performances of Debussy, I have to say, leave me cold. Technically perfect, they seem to miss the essential Debussy qualities of dreaminess and shimmering. On reflection, I don’t recall having heard a non-Frenchman play Debussy convincingly.

It’s interesting, incidentally, that French pianists seem to ‘get’ Debussy, as you would expect, but apparently not Chopin. It suggests Chopin’s heart was in Poland, not in Paris. (As indeed it now is, being immured at Warsaw’s Holy Cross Church, while the rest of his remains are buried at Père Lachaise.)

Apart from a superb recording of the Preludes, there has been relatively little Chopin output from Mr Blechacz since he bowled over the judges at the 2005 Warsaw international piano competition.

It must be tempting to diversify. On the other hand, a career as one of the greatest Chopin players of all time beckons. I hope it will come to fruition.

* East European fits with Chopin’s ancestry. The Jewish association seems harder to explain. The renowned Chopin interpreter Arthur Rubinstein claimed that it also helped to be gay, but I am not sure about this.

** the -cz is pronounced -tsh




The word “racism” has become one of the most loaded and dangerous terms in the modern vocabulary. One would therefore hope that those who are influential in determining its meaning are extremely careful about how they use it. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to have been the case.

Over the last couple of decades there has been a definite creep away from the original sense, so that the word now — functioning typically as an accusation — seems to cover a very broad array of things, some of them ill-defined.

The motive for the creep may seem hard to understand, unless one postulates that some people, particularly perhaps left-leaning intellectuals, have a desire to prohibit discussion by widening the range of ideas considered offensive — thereby restricting the lives of other (rival) intellectuals.

In Chambers’ 21st Century Dictionary (1996), the definition given is close to the common-sense meaning, involving as a crucial element an evaluation about superiority.
Belief in the inherent superiority of a particular race or races over others, usually with the implication of a right to be dominant.
Ten years later, in the 2006 edition of the Oxford English Dictionary, we have the following.
The belief that each race or ethnic group possesses specific characteristics, abilities or qualities that distinguish it as inferior or superior to another such group. [italics mine]
The newer definition starts with a reference to a belief in group differences, a reference which doesn’t occur at all in the earlier definition. Nevertheless, this second version of “racism” still crucially involves a belief about superiority/inferiority.

The current online OED* definition, by contrast, makes the meaning depend primarily on the issue of group differences, so that this now supposedly becomes the crucial component. The belief in superiority/inferiority — the element which, by itself, constituted the original definition — has been relegated to secondary importance (“especially ...”):
The belief that all members of each race possess characteristics, abilities, or qualities specific to that race, especially so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races. [italics mine]
Extrapolating from the current trend, it seems we may soon get a definition that dispenses with the phrase “all members of”. (This would not be surprising, considering that the usage is already with us.) This would rule as ‘racist’, for example, the suggestion that the average Belgian might be intrinsically different, however slightly, from the average Swede.

To evaluate any discussion of possible average innate differences between nations or ethnic groups as racist seems ludicrous and pointless. It censors meaningful discussion of the topic, reducing it to a choice between complete avoidance or recitation of platitudes. It also makes research in this area impossible, given that the merest hint of transgression of the taboo means no external funding, and negligible chance of publication.

I am not blaming the compilers of dictionaries for the corruption. They only record — or ought only to record — the usage they observe. For responsibility, look to journalists, academics and other members of the ruling class.

* retrieved 1 June 2013

● The change in emphasis may reflect the preferences of the il-liberal elite. Perhaps superiority is no longer regarded as an issue, now that the ideology has decreed that no one may feel superior to anyone else, on any grounds. (Except members of the il-liberal elite, but they only because their positions were assigned to them by exercise of the collective will, at least so the theory goes.)
The stress now is on homogeneity. Not only is no one superior; no one is intrinsically different from anyone else. None of us have any significance as individuals, only as members of undifferentiated groups, any apparent differences having been socially determined. (We are of course permitted to make trivial choices to express our pseudo-individuality — e.g. hair colour, sexual orientation.)

● Based on personal experience, I regard it as probable that there are innate variations between different nationalities, in terms of averages.

For example, it seems fairly clear to me that the personality of the average German — allowing for the effects of language and customs — is slightly, but noticeably, different from that of the average Brit, though it would be difficult to define precisely how. I do not believe the difference can easily be explained solely by reference to cultural backgrounds.

I am not of course expecting anyone to take anecdotal data as proving there are genetic attributes which vary between nations or races. My working theory about this issue is based on the best I guess I can make, given limited evidence. I am open to the idea that the theory is wrong, and that observed differences are entirely derived from environment rather than genes.

However, to label as taboo any discussion of the possibilities is anti-rational.

● An institution which adopts the strategy of censoring or forbidding the discussion, for whatever reason, is breaking a putative principle of objectivity, which ought to hold in academia, at least as an ideal from which one tries not to depart.
Breaking the principle, knowingly and actively, is a move that will surely colour the institution’s attitude in other areas, and undermine its objectivity on a wider scale.



● South Korean rapper and YouTube sensation Psy is endorsed by the United Nations?
David Cameron and Barack Obama have learnt the moves of Gangnam Style?
But of course.
Where would we be if our political leaders did not demonstrate a working knowledge of filesharing dance culture?
And always twirling, twirling, twirling



Lack of funding means I am limited to making brief comments on complex issues. Those with access to state finance, who could provide more detailed expositions from a similar perspective, do not.

Private capital is necessary for scientific and cultural progress. Modern institutionalised academia is not well suited to generating paradigm shifts. Those with surplus funds should regard it as a responsibility to support individual innovators, including those with unfashionable viewpoints — irrespective of whether they agree with them.

Oxford Forum is seeking patrons to provide financial backing. Donations support the work of Dr Celia Green, one of the few female geniuses there have ever been, and at present scandalously ignored by the intellectual establishment.